Last week, we explored European defense and the Arctic’s growing strategic importance—including how countries are investing to secure their interests in the region.
If you missed them, here are this week’s editions to catch up on:
Who Gets Paid to Fix Europe’s Ammunition Shortage?
For the past six months, I have deliberately held off on publishing a new update to our European defence thesis.
Macro Notes’ Top 5 Best-Performing Portfolios
As you know, we turn the investment theses featured in the newsletter into indexes with defined positions and active management. We take a medium-term approach, typically making just a few trades per year.
Get a full year of Macro Notes Premium for $350
Discover emerging investment theses across AI infrastructure, healthcare, defense, and more—with in-depth research to understand the opportunity, the risks, and the developments that matter.
Your Premium membership includes:
Every new Premium edition and access to our complete Premium archive.
Macro Notes Terminal, where you can follow our indexes and portfolios.
Ongoing analysis of the evidence that could strengthen, change, or invalidate each thesis.
$350 per year, less than $30 per month, and over 50% less than paying $60 monthly for 12 months.
Coming next week in Macro Notes
When a Monopoly Ends but the Market Keeps Growing, Where Does the Value Go?
Friday, we’ll examine a specific case within the pharmaceutical industry.
Here is the thesis we’ll aim to validate or refute: patent expirations redistribute profits, but biosimilar manufacturers are not automatically the winners. Some of the value may flow to healthcare payers, distributors, or companies replacing older treatments with newer products.
Our case study is Stelara. According to Johnson & Johnson’s results published on October 13, its declining sales reduced operational growth in the company’s medicines business by approximately 6.9 percentage points. Despite that drag, the business still grew 7.9%.
When a drug’s monopoly begins to unravel, the key question is where each dollar of lost sales goes: into lower prices, additional treatment volumes, competitors’ market share, or their profit margins.
Become a Premium member to read upcoming editions, access our complete research archive, and follow our indexes and portfolios on Macro Notes Terminal.