The mission of Macro Notes and the platform we’re building, Altis.finance, is to help you discover compelling investment theses before they pass you by.
For me, the most effective way to invest over the medium to long term has always been a global macro approach, combined with top-down stock picking.
Put simply: identify a macro thesis — a structural change in a market, for example — then work your way down to the companies best positioned to benefit.
Europe’s rearmament is a good example. European countries are responding to the Russian threat by increasing defense spending. Which companies will benefit from those budgets, and where will that money actually go?
Often, following one thesis leads us to another.
In this case, a less obvious investment thesis is emerging from Europe’s rearmament: Europe wants to manufacture more weapons, but it still depends on China for some of the ingredients it needs.
Europe can increase its budgets, order missiles, and finance new factories. But those factories need specific materials and components to operate.
If an essential input is missing, having the building, the workers, and the money is not enough. A small component can hold up the delivery of equipment worth far more.
That is what this edition is about: military security also depends on industrial supply chains that are far less visible than aircraft or tank manufacturers.
Why does China matter so much?
Because it dominates several stages of raw-material processing.
Take the rare earths used to manufacture certain high-performance magnets. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, China accounted for approximately:
60% of global mining output for magnet rare earths;
91% of their refining;
94% of the corresponding sintered permanent magnet production.
These figures describe the global supply chain for rare-earth magnets. They do not mean that 94% of European weapons depend on China.
The crucial detail is the jump from 60% to 91%. Finding a mine in another country does not fully solve the problem if its output still has to pass through China for processing.
You need the entire chain: mining, separation, refining, manufacturing components, and qualifying those components for their intended use.
Rare earths and tungsten are two examples of the materials Europe needs to secure. The dependence also extends to specialized components and the chemical inputs used in ammunition production.
This is one of the emerging investment theses flagged by Radar, the new product we’re developing inside Altis.finance.
Radar is still in beta. Its purpose is to help identify promising theses while they are still taking shape, before they become obvious.
On Altis.finance, you can already follow more than 100 portfolios tracking investment theses, many of which are further along in their development.
We continue tracking them because an established thesis can reveal where the next opportunity is forming. As companies expand production, governments change policy, and spending moves through the economy, new constraints and new beneficiaries emerge.
Following a thesis over time gives us the context to recognize its next chapter. That is part of what we are building Radar to do.
Europe’s dependence on China shows how this works. Following the rearmament cycle leads us to a deeper question about industrial sovereignty — and a different set of potential investment opportunities.
Imagine a brand-new ammunition factory. The orders are signed, the machinery is installed, and the workers have been hired. But one supplier cannot deliver an essential material.
The entire production schedule can slip.
How much would you then value a company capable of securing that supply?
Its strategic importance can be far greater than the value of what it sells you.
Europe aims to mobilize up to €800 billion in additional defense spending under its rearmament plan. That is potential funding capacity, dependent on national spending decisions. Part of that ambition rests on less visible suppliers: companies that refine a metal, produce a propellant, or manufacture a component that is difficult to replace.
For suppliers with qualified production capacity already in place, this can change the relationship with their customers.
A manufacturer seeking to secure several years of production may commit to long-term purchases. A government may help finance a new facility. Reliable supply may justify a higher price.
For a smaller company, a few major contracts can transform its revenue outlook — and, if execution follows, its profits.
That is the transformation we want to identify: the moment an industrial supplier becomes essential to a national priority.
But the opportunity depends on exactly where the bottleneck sits. Opening a mine is not enough if refining still depends on China. Building a factory is not enough if customers have not yet qualified its output.
Our research therefore focuses on finding the companies that can actually relieve these constraints, then assessing how much of that opportunity their share prices already reflect.
Who already has the capacity Europe will need tomorrow — and where could the next orders materially change the scale of the business?
That is where our selection begins.
Today, we’re launching a new live portfolio on Altis.finance dedicated to this thesis.
Subscribe to Macro Notes Premium to access our research and follow the portfolio, including its positions and trade history.
Or choose the Founding plan if you also want access to Radar, which will be available exclusively to Founding Members.