This is a special edition of Macro Notes. Today, for the first time, I’m opening the doors to our entire research engine. Every thesis. Every sector. The full map.
Last month, I closed a copper miners position that returned 41% in under five months.
It started as Thesis #88 on this list — Critical Minerals & Rare Earth Independence.
A single research question: if a hyperscale AI data center needs up to 50,000 tonnes of copper, and it takes 29 years to open a new mine in the United States, who controls the bottleneck?
That question led me to a mid-cap copper producer with permitted expansion capacity, long-term offtake agreements with two major utilities, and a reserve base that the market was valuing at a fraction of replacement cost.
I entered in October 2025 at $38.
Copper hit an all-time record of $14,527 per tonne on January 29th.
I exited my position in February.
That’s how Macro Notes works. Not hot takes. Not headlines. A system.
How the Macro Notes Research Engine Works
Every month, we maintain a list of exactly 100 investment theses.
Think of it as a tunnel.
At the entrance: 100 structural trends — the deepest, most consequential shifts reshaping the global economy. Demographics. Technology. Energy. Geopolitics. Capital flows. We update this list monthly.
Some theses get added. Some get removed. The count stays at 100.
In the middle: Rigorous research and analysis.
We dig into supply chains, read earnings transcripts, model TAMs, cross-reference government procurement data, talk to industry contacts.
Most theses don’t survive this stage.
At the exit: Real positions. Real money.
The 15–20 theses that make it through the tunnel become the basis of the Macro Notes Index — a concentrated portfolio that has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since inception.
Every week, we publish 2 to 3 deep-dive analyses, each covering one thesis from the list below. Entry zones. Price targets. Risk registers. Position sizing. The works.
Today, you get the 100 theses. Subscribers get the analyses.
Here’s the full list.
Theme 1 — Health & Next-Gen Biotech
The U.S. healthcare market is ~$4.9 trillion annually — heading toward $8 trillion by 2034. An aging population, breakthrough science, and AI-accelerated drug discovery are creating a generational investment wave.
Thesis #1 — Gene Therapy Revolution - CRISPR, base editing, and gene replacement therapies are moving from labs to FDA approvals. A $20B+ market is emerging where a single treatment cures diseases that cost $500K/year to manage. The economics are irresistible.
Thesis #2 — RNA Therapeutics Beyond COVID - Moderna and BioNTech proved mRNA works. Now they’re pivoting to cancer vaccines, rare diseases, and autoimmune disorders. The platform is the product — and the pipeline is exploding.
Thesis #3 — Precision Oncology - Targeted cancer therapies and liquid biopsies (Guardant Health, Natera) are replacing one-size-fits-all chemo. Detect cancer from a blood draw, treat it with molecular precision. $80B market by 2030.
Thesis #4 — AI-Powered Drug Discovery - Training a new drug takes 10 years and $1.3–2.6 billion. AI aims to compress that to 2–3 years and under $500 million. Recursion, Insilico Medicine, and big pharma partnerships are rewriting the economics of biotech.
Thesis #5 — The GLP-1 / Ozempic Economy - An estimated 25–30 million Americans on GLP-1 drugs by 2030. The global incretin market is projected to reach $150–200B. Beyond Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, entire industries are being restructured — airlines, insurance, apparel, food. The second-order effects are where the real money is.
Thesis #6 — Biotech Small-Cap M&A Wave - Big pharma faces a $200B+ patent cliff through 2030. They have no choice: acquire or die. Companies with drugs in Phase II/III are acquisition targets trading at massive discounts.
Thesis #7 — Digital Health & Telemedicine - COVID forced adoption. Consumer behavior stuck. Remote monitoring, virtual care — healthcare delivery is permanently changed. $500B market, still single-digit penetration.
Thesis #8 — Continuous Glucose Monitors & Wearables - Dexcom and Abbott are expanding beyond diabetes into metabolic health for healthy people. Apple Watch detects AFib in 200M+ users. The body is becoming a data stream.
Thesis #9 — Mental Health Tech - $280B global market, massively underserved. Ketamine clinics, psilocybin therapy (Compass Pathways), AI-powered therapy apps. Regulatory walls are falling and capital is flooding in.
Thesis #10 — Women’s Health - Historically the most underfunded category in medicine. $1 trillion market finally getting attention. Fertility tech, menopause treatments, maternal health platforms. Early innings.
📌 Deep Dive Available — Thesis #5
Our analysis of the GLP-1 thesis uncovered two small-cap pharma companies developing oral formulations that could disrupt a $54 billion injectable market. One showed Phase 2 data competitive with Ozempic — with dramatically fewer side effects. The 68% annual discontinuation rate on current injectables? That’s the opportunity.
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Theme 2 — Robotics & Physical Automation
The global robot economy is worth $78B today and could reach $165B by 2035. Hardware costs are collapsing. We may be the last generation to remember life before humanoids.
Thesis #11 — Humanoid Robots - Tesla Optimus, XPeng IRON, Figure AI. Citi estimates a $7 trillion market by 2050. Morgan Stanley projects $5 trillion and ~1 billion units. This is the iPhone moment for physical AI.
Thesis #12 — Warehouse Automation - Amazon operates 750,000+ robots. Walmart is building fully automated fulfillment centers at 2x human productivity. The ROI is undeniable.
Thesis #13 — Cobots (Collaborative Robots) - Unlike industrial robots, cobots work alongside humans in SMEs. Universal Robots, FANUC. The cost per task is now competitive with human labor. Inflection point.
Thesis #14 — Commercial Drones - Delivery, agriculture, infrastructure inspection, mapping. A $55B market by 2030. The companies building the “air traffic control” layer are invisible monopolies.
Thesis #15 — Counter-Drone Defense - Every modern conflict proves it: cheap drones are the biggest battlefield disruption since gunpowder. Anduril, CACI, and a dozen startups are building the defense layer.
Thesis #16 — Autonomous Vehicles & Robotaxis - Waymo is doing 400,000+ paid rides per week and targeting 1 million weekly by end of 2026. Aurora is targeting autonomous trucking. The $4 trillion transportation market is being repriced.
Thesis #17 — Autonomous Delivery - Last-mile delivery costs $10+ per package. Autonomous robots cut it to $1–2. Nuro, Starship, and Amazon’s fleet are operating at scale.
Thesis #18 — Surgical Robotics - Intuitive Surgical: $7B revenue, 90%+ market share. The next wave: micro-robotics, AI-assisted surgery, remote operations. $40B market by 2030.
Thesis #19 — Agricultural Robots - Labor shortages + rising food demand + precision requirements = automation. The farm is becoming a factory floor.
Thesis #20 — Actuators, Sensors & Smart Motors - The “picks and shovels” of robotics. Every robot needs them. Costs halving every 2 years. This is where the margins hide.
Each week, Macro Notes Premium publishes 2–3 deep dives covering individual theses like these — with specific companies, entry zones, price targets, and risk analysis.
Theme 3 — Cybersecurity & Digital Sovereignty
Every company’s board now has a fiduciary duty to spend on cybersecurity. AI agents are multiplying the attack surface exponentially. This isn’t optional — it’s existential.
Thesis #21 — Cybersecurity in the Age of AI Agents - Every AI agent is a potential attack vector. The enterprise security market must grow 3–5x just to keep pace. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler.
Thesis #22 — Sovereign AI Infrastructure - France, UAE, Singapore, Japan — spending billions to build their own AI compute. They refuse to depend on U.S. hyperscalers for national security.
Thesis #23 — Zero-Trust Architecture - The old model is dead. Zero-trust is the new standard. Every Fortune 500 is migrating. Multi-year contracts = predictable revenue.
Thesis #24 — Post-Quantum Encryption - Quantum computers will break RSA encryption within 10–20 years. Every bank, military, and government needs quantum-resistant security — before quantum arrives.
Thesis #25 — Critical Infrastructure Protection - Power grids, water systems, telecom — all increasingly connected, all increasingly vulnerable. Government mandates forcing billions in spending.
Thesis #26 — Cyber Insurance - Attack frequency has surged dramatically since 2020. Premiums are exploding. AI-driven underwriting models will capture enormous margins.
Thesis #27 — Digital Identity & Biometrics - 1.4 billion Aadhaar users. Europe building eIDAS 2.0. Digital identity is becoming infrastructure — controlling the on-ramp to every digital service.
Thesis #28 — Defense-Tech Cybersecurity - General Dynamics GDIT, Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos. Multi-year, cost-plus, recession-proof government contracts. The backlog is massive.
Thesis #29 — Supply Chain Security - Counterfeit chips. Compromised firmware. Hardware backdoors. Verifying electronic component integrity is a $15B+ market that barely exists yet.
Thesis #30 — AI-Powered Fraud Detection - Banks lose $40B+ annually to fraud. AI-driven systems cut losses by 50–70%. Every financial institution on earth needs this.
📌 Deep Dives Available — Theses #15, #28, #29
European defense spending will exceed $2.6 trillion over the next decade. We published two analyses that map this supercycle — the macro picture and the actionable playbook with 14 specific positions, entry zones, stop-losses, and a hedging strategy.
The Defense Investor's Playbook: How I'm Playing the $2.6 Trillion Rearmament Supercycle
·Bydgoszcz, Poland. Population 350,000.
Subscribe to unlock the full playbook →
Theme 4 — The Space Economy
Reusable rockets cut launch costs by 100x. Space is no longer science fiction — it’s infrastructure. The space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
Thesis #31 — Reusable Rockets & Launch Economics - SpaceX launches at ~$2,700/kg vs $54,500/kg for the Space Shuttle. This cost reduction is industrializing orbit. Every thesis below depends on this one.
Thesis #32 — Satellite Internet - 2.6 billion people lack reliable internet. Starlink has 5M+ subscribers. Amazon Kuiper is launching. The TAM is the entire unconnected planet.
Thesis #33 — Space-Based Defense - U.S. Space Force budget growing 15%+ annually. Satellite surveillance, missile tracking, communications. A new generation of space defense startups.
Thesis #34 — Space Debris Cleanup - 40,000+ tracked objects in orbit. One collision triggers Kessler syndrome. Astroscale is building the “garbage trucks of space.”
Thesis #35 — In-Orbit Manufacturing - Microgravity enables materials impossible to make on Earth. Early but the economics are compelling.
Thesis #36 — Earth Observation Data - Planet Labs photographs every point on Earth daily. $8B+ market growing 20%+ annually.
Thesis #37 — GPS Alternatives & Sovereign Navigation - Galileo (EU), BeiDou (China). GPS dependency is a national security risk.
Thesis #38 — Commercial Space Stations - ISS retires ~2030. Axiom Space, Orbital Reef building private replacements. NASA is the anchor tenant.
Thesis #39 — Asteroid Mining - A single metallic asteroid contains more platinum than ever mined on Earth. Speculative but civilization-changing.
Thesis #40 — Ground Infrastructure - Spaceports, tracking stations, ground terminals. The “plumbing” of the space economy. Boring, essential, profitable.
Premium subscribers receive 2–3 analyses per week. Each one turns a thesis into an actionable investment case — verified data, specific companies, clear risk/reward.
Theme 5 — Water & The Future of Food
2 billion people lack safe drinking water. Food demand will increase 50% by 2050. These are not optional problems — they are survival problems.
Thesis #41 — The Global Water Crisis - $1 trillion in infrastructure investment needed. Xylem, Veolia, American Water Works. Guaranteed demand growth.
Thesis #42 — Desalination Technology - Saudi Arabia, UAE, California — all building massive capacity. Energy Recovery Inc. reduces costs by 60%.
Thesis #43 — Smart Irrigation & Water Tech - Agriculture uses 70% of freshwater. Smart irrigation cuts waste 30–50%. Mandatory technology adoption.
Thesis #44 — Water Utilities - Recession-proof, inflation-protected, dividend-growing. Boring but compounding.
Thesis #45 — Vertical Farming - 90% less water, no pesticides, year-round production. Still early but structurally undeniable.
Thesis #46 — Precision Agriculture - John Deere + AI + computer vision. Trimble GPS guidance. Farmers becoming data scientists. $15B market.
Thesis #47 — Alternative Proteins - Beyond the hype cycle. Precision fermentation, cultivated meat. The real opportunities are in infrastructure.
Thesis #48 — Fertilizer Supply Chains - Russia/Belarus control ~40% of global potash. Ukraine war exposed the fragility. Food security mandates.
Thesis #49 — Food Waste Reduction - $400B+ wasted annually in the U.S. Cold chain logistics, AI-driven optimization. Massive market, minimal competition.
Thesis #50 — Regenerative Agriculture & Carbon Credits - Farmers get paid to sequester carbon. A new asset class forming at the intersection of agriculture, climate, and finance.
Want to know which water and agriculture companies we’re actually buying? Premium subscribers get the full analysis — including the ones nobody covers.
Theme 6 — The Energy Revolution (Beyond Nuclear)
The world needs to double electricity generation by 2040. Grid infrastructure needs $2.5 trillion in upgrades. The most capital-intensive buildout in human history.
Thesis #51 — Grid-Scale Battery Storage - The missing link for renewables. CATL, BYD, Tesla Megapack. $120B market by 2030.
Thesis #52 — Geothermal Renaissance - Fervo Energy proved enhanced geothermal works. 24/7 clean power. Google signed a PPA. The forgotten energy source is back.
Thesis #53 — The Hydrogen Economy - Green hydrogen scaling. Air Liquide, Linde. $500B market by 2050 — if infrastructure costs come down.
Thesis #54 — The LNG Export Boom - U.S. is the world’s largest LNG exporter. Cheniere, Sempra. Multi-decade contracts at premium pricing.
Thesis #55 — Offshore Wind - $1T+ in planned European capex. Significant headwinds from cost inflation and project cancellations — but structural tailwinds intact long-term.
Thesis #56 — Solar Supply Chain Decoupling - 80% of solar manufacturing is in China. Forced reshoring = premium valuations for non-Chinese supply chains.
Thesis #57 — Transmission & Distribution - The real bottleneck. Quanta Services, MasTec, EMCOR. A $200B+ upgrade cycle.
Thesis #58 — Virtual Power Plants - Aggregate thousands of home batteries into grid-scale resources. Software-defined energy.
Thesis #59 — Carbon Capture & Storage - Occidental’s DAC in Texas. Climeworks in Iceland. $100B+ market by 2040.
Thesis #60 — Natural Gas Midstream - Pipelines, processing, storage. 6–8% dividend yields, inflation-protected. The “toll roads” of energy.
📌 Deep Dive Available — Theses #57, #63
We traced $650 billion in hyperscaler AI capex to a single chokepoint: power transformers. One domestic steel supplier. Two plants. And a small-cap that supplies 4 of the 5 largest transformer manufacturers on Earth — at 9.2x forward earnings.
The $650 Billion Bottleneck: Big Tech Is Spending a Fortune on AI — But They Can’t Plug It In
·On January 28th, Microsoft reported earnings that should have made every investor in America sit up straight.
Subscribe to see which company →
Theme 7 — AI Infrastructure (Beyond the Chips)
Hyperscalers will spend $300–400B+ on AI capex in 2026. The real opportunities are in the physical layer — buildings, power, cooling, cables.
Thesis #61 — Data Center REITs - Equinix, Digital Realty — landlords of the AI economy. Capital appreciation AND income.
Thesis #62 — Cooling Systems - AI chips generate enormous heat. Vertiv, Schneider Electric. No cooling = no AI.
Thesis #63 — Electrical Grid for AI - Each data center needs 500MW+. Eaton, Hubbell, Quanta Services. $2.5 trillion upgrade cycle.
Thesis #64 — Submarine Cables - 99% of intercontinental data travels undersea. An invisible monopoly with 25-year lifespans.
Thesis #65 — Natural Gas Power for Data Centers - 24/7 power that solar and wind can’t guarantee. A contrarian play.
Thesis #66 — Small FPGAs & Power Management - Lattice Semiconductor: 50+ chips per server rack. Cyclical recovery with structural tailwinds.
Thesis #67 — The AI Power Consumption Crisis - A single AI query uses 6–10x more electricity than a web search. Who supplies the power? That’s the real AI trade.
Thesis #68 — Edge Computing - Not all AI runs in centralized data centers. $60B+ market. Different companies, different supply chain.
Thesis #69 — Fiber Optics - Corning, Ciena — the physical pipes. Order books at record levels.
Thesis #70 — Water for Data Centers - Millions of gallons daily for cooling. In water-scarce regions, this is a regulatory crisis.
📌 Deep Dive Available — Thesis #67
AI has a power problem nobody wants to see. We followed the electricity crisis to its logical conclusion — past the reactors, past the turbines — to a single yellowish powder. Global uranium production meets only 90% of reactor demand. The gap is being filled by stockpiles that are running out.
AI Has a Power Problem Nobody Wants to See. One Commodity Solves It.
·I want to tell you about a letter that was sent last October that almost nobody covered properly.
Subscribe for the full commodity thesis and specific mining positions →
Theme 8 — Fintech, Crypto & The New Financial System
$124 trillion in wealth transfers by 2048. Tokenization moving from experiment to infrastructure. The financial system is being rebuilt.
Thesis #71 — Tokenization of Real Assets - BlackRock tokenizing money market funds. $100T+ in illiquid assets unlocked. The biggest structural shift since ETFs.
Thesis #72 — Stablecoins as Financial Infrastructure - Tether and Circle process billions daily. Faster, cheaper, 24/7. The new Visa.
Thesis #73 — Bitcoin as Institutional Reserve Asset - IBIT became the fastest-growing ETF in history. Central banks diversifying. Bitcoin maturing from speculation to infrastructure.
Thesis #74 — DeFi 2.0 - Crypto-native platforms matching incumbents. Lending, trading, insurance — without intermediaries.
Thesis #75 — The Private Credit Boom - AUM surpassing $1.5 trillion. Energy transition needs non-dilutive financing. Banks retreating = massive opportunity.
Thesis #76 — Regional Bank Consolidation - 150+ M&A deals in 2025. Margins improving, regulation loosening. The wave is accelerating.
Thesis #77 — Embedded Finance - Stripe, Adyen — financial services in every app. Infrastructure providers capture margin on every transaction.
Thesis #78 — InsurTech - AI underwriting, instant claims. The $6 trillion insurance industry is being digitized.
Thesis #79 — Digital Payments in Emerging Markets - UPI: 12.1 billion transactions/month. PIX. M-Pesa. Monopolies in billion-person markets.
Thesis #80 — The $124 Trillion Wealth Transfer - Boomers passing $124T to the next generation. 70% flows to women. Enormous platform opportunity.
📌 Deep Dive Available — Thesis #82 (next section)
Central banks bought gold at record pace in 2025. Poland alone acquired 102 tonnes. But the real story isn’t gold — it’s the parallel financial system being built underneath it. CIPS now connects 4,800 banks across 185 countries. Russia and China settle 99% of bilateral trade without dollars.
The $5,000 Asset That Central Banks Are Panic-Buying — And What It Means for Your Portfolio
·In January 2026, the governor of Poland’s central bank made a statement that stopped me mid-scroll.
Full analysis with positioning strategy — Premium subscribers only →
Theme 9 — Geopolitics & New Trade Routes
Globalization as we knew it is dead. Supply chains rebuilt for resilience, not efficiency. The countries and companies positioned at the nodes of new trade routes will capture generational value.
Thesis #81 — The North-South Trade Realignment - Developed markets strengthening links with LatAm, Africa, South Asia. Efficiency → resilience.
Thesis #82 — De-Dollarization & Reserve Diversification - Central banks buying gold at record pace. Dollar isn’t dying — but its monopoly is eroding.
Thesis #83 — Africa’s Resource Boom - 30% of the world’s critical minerals. Chinese investment surging. Western capital waking up.
Thesis #84 — Vietnam: The New China - Samsung, Intel, Apple suppliers moving in. GDP 6%+. China+1 strategy = Vietnam’s windfall.
Thesis #85 — Brazil: Tech & Agricultural Powerhouse - PIX, Nubank (100M+ customers), world’s breadbasket. Tech + commodities.
Thesis #86 — Turkey’s Strategic Position - Europe-Asia bridge. Bayraktar drones. Young population. Undervalued.
Thesis #87 — Indonesia’s Nickel Dominance - 50%+ of global nickel. Moving up the EV value chain. Enormous leverage.
Thesis #88 — Critical Minerals & Rare Earth Independence - China controls 60%+ of processing. Export controls weaponized. Alternative supply chains = strategic assets.
Thesis #89 — The $3.5 Trillion Infrastructure Gap - McKinsey: $3.5T/year needed. Decades of demand for builders and financiers.
Thesis #90 — Friendshoring & Trade Bloc Formation - USMCA, AUKUS, Quad. Companies in the “right” blocs thrive. Those in the middle suffer.
📌 Deep Dive Available — Thesis #88
Copper is the new oil. A single hyperscale AI data center needs up to 50,000 tonnes. It takes 29 years to open a mine in the United States. We identified the companies positioned at this chokepoint — and the ones trading at prices that make no sense.
Copper Is the New Oil — And Nobody’s Paying Attention
·In 2008, a tornado bore down on Jackson, Mississippi.
Full commodity thesis with specific positions — Premium only →
Theme 10 — Consumer Economy & Societal Shifts
Demographics are destiny. 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. $124 trillion changing hands. AI restructuring labor. Irreversible shifts.
Thesis #91 — The Silver Economy - 2.1 billion people over 60 by 2050. The wealthiest elderly population in history. $76T in Boomer wealth.
Thesis #92 — The Pet Economy - $300B+ global, growing 8% annually. Chewy, Zoetis, Idexx. Recession-resistant.
Thesis #93 — Creator Economy Infrastructure
50 million creators globally. Substack, Patreon, Kajabi. $100B+ market in platform monopolies.
Thesis #94 — AI-Powered Dating & Social Matching - 670 million single people of dating age. AI transforms matching from random to predictive.
Thesis #95 — Sports Betting & iGaming - DraftKings, Flutter. $30B+ U.S. market by 2030. Recurring revenue, high margins.
Thesis #96 — Luxury Goods Resilience - LVMH, Hermès, Ferrari. Pricing power is infinite when your product is status.
Thesis #97 — Education Tech & AI Reskilling - AI will displace millions of jobs. Coursera, Duolingo — the picks-and-shovels of labor transition.
Thesis #98 — Senior Housing REITs - Welltower leading, ~89% occupancy, supply-constrained. 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily. Unstoppable demographic wave.
Thesis #99 — Gen Z Consumption Patterns - Fitness over fashion. Experiences over possessions. Wellness is $2T+ growing 2x GDP.
Thesis #100 — AI Labor Displacement & The New Economy - The most important macro question of the decade. Which jobs disappear? Which new industries emerge? We’re mapping the investment implications.
What Subscribers Get Every Week
Here’s what you unlock with Macro Notes Premium.
2–3 deep-dive analyses per week. Each one covers a single thesis from this list. Not surface-level commentary. Real research: verified data, supply chain analysis, earnings transcript quotes, specific companies, entry zones, price targets, catalyst calendars, and risk registers.
The Macro Notes Index. Our concentrated portfolio of active positions, updated quarterly. It tracks every thesis that made it through the tunnel — from idea to real money.
Priority access to new theses. When we add or remove a thesis, Premium subscribers get the analysis explaining why — often weeks before the market catches up.
Here’s a sample of what we’ve published recently:
The Obesity Pill Race — Thesis #5. Two small-cap oral GLP-1 developers trading at massive discounts to the injectable market.
The $2.6T Defense Supercycle — Theses #15, #28. European defense budgets accelerating regardless of Ukraine outcome.
The Defense Playbook — Theses #15, #28. 14 positions, hedging strategy, and a contract calendar for 2026–2027.
The $650B Bottleneck — Theses #57, #63. A transformer component supplier at 9.2x forward earnings.
AI’s Power Problem — Thesis #67. Uranium as the chokepoint of the AI revolution.
Copper Is the New Oil — Thesis #88. 50,000 tonnes per data center. 29 years to open a US mine.
Central Banks Are Panic-Buying — Thesis #82. Gold at $5,100, CIPS as SWIFT alternative, and the parallel financial system.
]One Last Thing
I started Macro Notes because I couldn’t find what I wanted as an investor — deep, independent research on structural themes, without the noise, without the bias of sell-side incentives, and without the paywall-everything model that gives you nothing to judge quality.
That’s why this edition exists. You now have the full map. You can see exactly what we study, exactly how we think, and exactly what kind of analysis we produce.
If you want the rest — the companies, the numbers, the positions — that’s what Premium is for.
We publish 2–3 times per week.
Each edition is the product of 15–30 hours of research.
The next one drops in a few days.
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© 2026 Macro Notes — This is not financial advice. All analyses reflect the author’s personal research and positions.