Over the last 4 months, I’ve published nine full premium playbooks on Macro Notes — European defense, the ammunition supply chain, the transformer bottleneck, copper, the energy security supercycle, Polish banks, prediction markets, robotics, counter-drone.
Each one stands on its own thesis.
But together they’ve become something more: a single, coherent portfolio built around one idea.
That idea is simple. The world is rewiring itself — physically, militarily, geopolitically, and computationally — and the bottleneck is never the headline name. It’s always one or two layers down the supply chain. The transformer, not the GPU. The radar, not the missile. The harmonic gear, not the humanoid. The grain-oriented electrical steel, not the data center.
That framework has compounded my book at a pace I genuinely did not expect when I started writing this newsletter.
So today, on May 1st, 2026, I’m doing something I’ve never done in one place before: I’m publishing the complete, current, line-by-line state of my Macro Notes public portfolio. Every core position. Every entry price. Every gain and every loss. The names I’m trimming. The names I’m adding. The two positions I closed at a loss in Q1 that I want to be transparent about.
The headline number that matters
My Macro Notes portfolio is up ~+22% year-to-date in 2026.
Over the same window, the S&P 500 is up just +4.5%.
That’s a ~17 point outperformance against the U.S. benchmark in four months — driven by the European defense and grid infrastructure positions, the Polish banks I’ve been holding for over a year, and the discipline to trim winners on strength rather than ride them into peak euphoria.
The year is off to a strong start. The framework is working. And for the most part, my premium subscribers — many of whom joined in the last few months — are sitting in exactly the same positions I’m holding, captured at roughly the same entry zones from the playbooks published since February.
One important clarification before we go further
What follows is my public Macro Notes portfolio — the actively managed equity book I’ve built and disclosed alongside the playbooks I publish here. It is not the totality of my personal investments. I also hold ETFs (broad index, EM, factor), private equity allocations, and cash held outside of this brokerage account. None of those are part of what I track and publish here. The Macro Notes portfolio is the thematic single-name equity sleeve I run as the public expression of the framework I write about.
Different mandate. Different rules. Different sleeve.
What’s free below
A 60-second walkthrough of the four-bucket framework I use to classify every position, why I’m running 14% cash right now, and the one macro signal that’s making me more cautious than I’ve been since late 2023.
What’s behind the paywall (premium subscribers only)
The actual portfolio. All of it. Specifically:
The 10 core positions I’m holding into the second half of 2026 — organized by sector — with current price, my entry price, my entry month, YTD 2026 return, and the one-sentence thesis that keeps me holding
Risk classification for each name — Safe Compounder, Long-Term Core, Medium-Term Tactical, or Speculative Asymmetry — so you understand what role each one plays in the book
The two positions I exited at a loss in Q1 2026, with exact exit dates and what I learned
The three positions I’m trimming on strength right now — and the price levels where I’d cut them entirely
Two new positions I started building in April that haven’t been featured in any prior playbook
The full performance breakdown — YTD 2026 by position, plus historical entry returns for context
The watchlist of names I’d buy aggressively on a 15%+ sector pullback
If you’ve been following the playbooks and wondering how to actually weight them against each other — this is the edition that puts it all together.
The framework, in 60 seconds
I sort every position into one of four buckets:
Safe Compounder. Quality businesses with multi-year visibility, dividends, and limited drawdown risk. I sleep at night because of these.
Long-Term Core. Structural theses I expect to hold for 3–5+ years. Higher beta than the compounders, but the 2030 earnings power justifies the volatility today.
Medium-Term Tactical. Specific catalysts within an 18-month window. Defined exit plan. Defined stop.
Speculative Asymmetry. Smaller positions where I’m paying for optionality. If they go to zero, I’ve sized for it. If they triple, they move the book.
Right now, the book is roughly 30% Safe Compounder, 38% Long-Term Core, 14% Medium-Term Tactical, 4% Speculative Asymmetry, and 14% cash.
That cash position is intentional. European defense pulled back roughly 11% from its 2026 peaks in the last few weeks on peace-talk noise. AI infrastructure names like GEV and VRT are pricing in flawless execution through 2028. I’m not bearish — I’m waiting to redeploy into the next 15% sector dislocation. History says I won’t have to wait long.
Let’s get into the actual book.
Everything below — the full portfolio, all 10 positions with entry prices and YTD 2026 returns, the two exits, the trims, the two new April adds, the allocation breakdown, and the watchlist — is for premium subscribers.
Note: the annual subscription price increases as the subscriber base grows. Today, you can lock in your first year for $180. Soon it moves to $220.
🔒 The Full Macro Notes Portfolio (May 1, 2026)
