Over the past two years, we have explored several themes at Macro Notes: European rearmament, GLP-1 treatments, and the role of fiber optics in digital infrastructure.
Some of these theses have led to very attractive opportunities. They shared a common starting point: a change was becoming visible in the economy, and we wanted to understand which companies could benefit.
But past opportunities do not answer the question that matters to us today: where could the next ones come from?
So I wanted to share five investment theses we will be following closely at Macro Notes. They are at different stages. Some are beginning to translate into industrial investment. Others have recently passed an important clinical milestone. All five give us concrete reasons to keep researching.
When I describe these themes as early, I mean that their markets are still developing. That does not mean nobody knows about them, or that the stocks involved are necessarily cheap.
We are putting them on our active watchlist. We still need to see more before we consider a position justified in our indexes. For some, that means orders and better visibility into margins. For others, stronger clinical results. In every case, we will also need to find a company and a valuation that make the opportunity attractive for shareholders.
For each thesis, you will find a measure of what could change if it works, the developments beginning to support it, and the next milestones we want to see. We distinguish reported figures, third-party forecasts, and our own illustrative scenarios throughout.
This entire edition is free to read. I want you to understand our reasoning, the evidence behind it, and the risks we see.
Premium and Founding members will then receive our deeper research, updates when we take positions in our indexes, and explanations of any changes to our strategy. As we publish the relevant indexes, members will be able to follow those decisions on altis.finance.
An interesting idea is a starting point. The work that follows is deciding what to do with it, at what price, and when to change your mind.
1. Navigating When GPS Becomes Unreliable
Imagine a drone, a ship, or an aircraft suddenly losing access to a usable navigation signal.
For some operators, this is already a daily operational problem. On September 24, Reuters reported that Finnair had adapted its pilot training to GPS interference in the Baltic region. Aircraft have backup systems, but the frequency of the disruption adds another operational challenge.
That brings us to a simple question: which companies make it possible to keep navigating in these conditions?
The thesis focuses on inertial navigation systems, sensors, and equipment that make vehicles and other platforms less dependent on satellite signals. Established technologies and emerging quantum approaches will develop on different timelines.
Another signal came in June 2026, when EuroHPC launched a program focused on quantum sensors for navigation in environments where satellite signals are unavailable or disrupted.
The potential: protecting a function that supports an ecosystem worth hundreds of billions of euros.
In its May 2026 report, the EU Agency for the Space Programme, EUSPA, estimated global revenues from GNSS equipment and services at around €300 billion in 2024, with a forecast of €580 billion by 2034. It also expects the installed base of GNSS-enabled devices to reach almost 10 billion by then.
Those figures include a wide range of consumer and automotive applications. They are not the market size for navigation that can withstand jamming. They show how dependent we have become on this infrastructure, including in applications where reliability is critical.
If disruption persists, the ability to operate without a reliable satellite signal could become a much more important purchasing requirement for drones, ships, and certain aviation systems. That could create a cycle of new equipment purchases and upgrades to existing fleets, with suppliers integrated into their customers’ platforms for years.
What we need to see before taking a position: production orders following trials, repeat purchases, and a revenue contribution large enough to influence the supplier’s results. For quantum approaches, we also want performance demonstrated in real operating conditions and costs that make sense for the intended market. We will then assess how much of that growth is already reflected in the share price.
The risk is paying today for a market that takes much longer to develop. A promising technology still needs customers, and a small business line may have little impact on a large group’s earnings.
2. The Suppliers Behind Nuclear Medicine
Treating cancer with a radiopharmaceutical requires a drug that can deliver a radioactive substance to its target. It also requires the ability to produce that substance and deliver the treatment under the right conditions.
That industrial supply chain interests us as much as the drugs themselves.
In May 2026, Novartis presented new data on its radioligand therapies, including early results for an actinium-based treatment. These results do not guarantee success, but they strengthen the case for further research into this approach.
Manufacturing capacity is developing too. Eckert & Ziegler and DC Pharma recently announced the opening of an isotope production facility in China. A second phase is planned to include actinium-225 production.
Our thesis is that some suppliers could benefit from the development of several treatments by providing the isotopes, equipment, or manufacturing capacity they require.
The potential: supplying the expansion of a business that already generates billions of dollars.
In 2025, Pluvicto generated $1.994 billion in sales, while Lutathera generated $816 million, or $2.81 billion combined. Pluvicto’s sales grew 43% in US dollars that year.
In its November 2025 investor presentation, Novartis estimated Pluvicto’s peak annual sales potential at more than $5 billion, including marketed indications and expected future indications. That is more than 2.5 times its 2025 sales. This is the company’s estimate, dependent on clinical and commercial progress, with no guaranteed year for reaching that level.
If achieved, that would mean more than $3 billion in additional annual sales versus 2025 from a single treatment. The development of other radioligand therapies could expand industrial demand further.
Isotope suppliers would capture only part of that value. But more patients and treatments can mean more doses to manufacture, more qualified capacity, and more deliveries to organize. This is where we are looking for businesses with room to grow substantially.
What we need to see before taking a position: contracts translating into delivered volumes, approved and operational capacity, and evidence that higher production improves margins. We also want to understand each supplier’s dependence on individual drugs and make sure the share price leaves room for error.
There are two main risks: clinical trials may disappoint, and suppliers may build too much capacity. A supply constraint today does not guarantee lasting pricing power.
3. After Weight Loss, Preserving Muscle
GLP-1 treatments have opened up a huge field of research in obesity care. We are now interested in a related question: how can the quality of weight loss improve?
Lean mass can decline during weight loss. Lean mass is not exclusively muscle, and preserving it does not automatically demonstrate better strength or greater independence in daily life.
That is the next step we want to watch.
A Phase 2 study published in Nature Medicine in 2026 provided proof of concept for apitegromab in preserving lean mass during treatment with tirzepatide. The study remains preliminary and has methodological limitations, but it offers a direction worth investigating.
If an additional treatment demonstrates a meaningful enough benefit, it could find a place alongside obesity medications. It also connects with a broader question about aging: how to preserve physical function.
The potential: building a new treatment category around an already substantial market.
In an analysis published in 2026, Morgan Stanley estimated that the global market for GLP-1 treatments for obesity and type 2 diabetes could reach $190 billion by 2035, compared with $79 billion in 2025. That includes both conditions; it is not an estimate of the market for muscle preservation.
The relevance to our thesis is the growing number of patients receiving treatment. An effective add-on therapy would not need to be prescribed to everyone to become a significant business.
Consider a purely illustrative scenario, at some point after a possible approval: one million patients receiving an additional treatment that generates $3,000 in net annual revenue per patient would represent $3 billion in annual sales. At three million patients, the figure would be $9 billion. Both the price and patient numbers are assumptions for this calculation, not market data or an adoption forecast.
This gives a sense of the opportunity. Even targeted adoption could support a multibillion-dollar drug category if the clinical benefit and funding are there. The impact could be particularly meaningful if treatment also helps preserve mobility or independence, which remains to be demonstrated.
What we need to see before taking a position: results confirmed in larger trials, a clinically meaningful benefit beyond a lean-mass measurement, acceptable safety, and a credible path to approval and reimbursement. We will also assess developers’ funding needs and the risk of shareholder dilution.
The main risk is that an interesting biological result may not justify the cost and burden of another treatment. We want to understand the benefit to patients before building the economic case.
4. Mineral Independence Starts Beyond the Mine
Extracting a resource is only one part of securing a supply chain. It also needs to be separated, refined, and transformed into a usable material.
In rare earths, we are particularly interested in these intermediate stages, as well as recycling.
In July 2026, USA Rare Earth finalized an agreement to acquire a stake in France’s Carester. The transaction supports the development of rare earth separation and magnet recycling capacity in Lacq.
What interests us is the transition from a political objective to an industrial operation: suppliers, factories, and supply agreements.
The thesis is that supply security could support new capacity and customer commitments lasting several years.
The potential: building several times the capacity currently available outside China.
In its 2026 rare earths report, the IEA projects that demand for magnet rare earths outside China will increase by 50% by 2035 under current policy settings.
To meet all of that demand through diversified supply, its analysis indicates that refining capacity would need to grow roughly fourfold, and magnet manufacturing capacity roughly sixfold, relative to existing capacity including planned expansions. The report distinguishes this base from the broader pipeline of announced new projects, which could close part of the gap. These are requirements under a full-coverage scenario, not a forecast of what will actually be built.
The potential opportunity therefore extends beyond growth in consumption. It includes establishing industrial capabilities in new regions. A company that secures both its inputs and its customers could find a place in a supply chain that develops over many years.
The economic importance is striking relative to the volume of material involved. The IEA estimates that full implementation of the export restrictions it examines would put $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China at risk. That measures industrial exposure under that scenario; it is not the revenue available to rare earth producers.
What we need to see before taking a position: enough financing to reach production, purchase agreements with credible customers, competitive costs, and initial deliveries that meet industrial specifications. The ability to protect margins if material prices fall will be important.
The risks remain significant: delays, additional financing needs, shareholder dilution, and competition from lower-cost producers. A country can need a factory without its shareholders earning an attractive return.
5. Replacing Organs: Another Approach to Longevity
Longevity is often discussed in terms of slowing the aging process. Another approach is to improve our ability to replace organs that no longer work.
Xenotransplantation, including the use of organs from genetically modified pigs, is one of the areas we will be following.
United Therapeutics announced the first transplant in its EXPAND kidney trial in November 2025. In May 2026, it also announced clearance to begin a clinical trial of its UHeart cardiac program.
These milestones allow the approach to be tested in clinical trials. They do not yet establish that it can become a widely available treatment.
This is the most experimental of the five theses in this edition. Its potential rests on the possibility of sustainably increasing the supply of transplantable organs.
The potential: adding tens of thousands of transplants to a system constrained by organ shortages.
As of July 30, 2026, US data recorded 95,492 people in the kidney waiting-list category, while 27,574 kidney transplants, excluding the separate kidney-pancreas category, had been performed in 2025. The waiting list is a snapshot, while transplants are an annual flow. Comparing them illustrates the shortage; it does not directly measure waiting times.
In an illustrative scenario, an additional 10,000 kidney transplants per year would represent an increase of roughly 36%over that annual volume. An additional 25,000 would bring the total close to double. This assumes genuinely additional transplants, eligible patients, and sufficient hospital capacity. It is not a deployment forecast.
If the approach becomes safe and reproducible, the impact could be very tangible: more patients receiving transplants and, for those with a lasting functioning graft, the possibility of coming off dialysis. On the industrial side, this could create a business around controlled biological production, with demanding qualification requirements and long-term monitoring.
There is also a new development in manufacturing: in August 2026, United Therapeutics opened a facility intended to produce xenografts for clinical trials and potential commercial use.
What we need to see before taking a position: durable graft survival across multiple patients, control of rejection and infections, reproducible outcomes, and a credible regulatory pathway. We will then need to understand production costs, reimbursement, and transplant centers’ ability to perform these procedures. We will separate the value of companies’ existing businesses from the much more uncertain value of their xenotransplantation programs.
Clinical risk is substantial, timelines may be long, and the ability to scale remains uncertain. Knowing when to wait will be part of the work.
How We Will Follow These Five Theses
These five themes form a research agenda. We will look for the companies best positioned to benefit, study their results, and examine what their valuations already assume.
Each opportunity is significant enough to deserve close attention. Each still has specific conditions to meet before we consider an investment justified.
The important transition will be from expected results to observed results: a trial confirming a clinical benefit, a factory delivering its product, a customer renewing a contract, or margins beginning to reflect growth. Our aim is to determine when the evidence and the price make the remaining uncertainty acceptable.
We can be right about a market’s development and still choose the wrong stock. We can also identify a good company at a price that leaves too little room for error.
That is why we will follow both the developments that strengthen each thesis and those that would force us to reconsider it.
When we decide to take a position in an index, Premium and Founding members will receive our analysis: why we chose that exposure, the strategy behind it, the risks, and what we will watch next. The indexes on altis.finance will let you review the documented positions and follow their evolution.
Our horizon is the medium to long term. We study changes that can unfold over several years, while remaining disciplined enough to adjust our approach along the way.
These five theses will be part of that work. I look forward to sharing it with you.
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Own mineral suppliers while independence still funds capacity.